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.iie.comTable 5.3 The impact on the United States of a gradual dollar decline or faster growth abroadLevels Growth rates2001 2002 2007 2012 2017 2002-07 2002-12 2002-17FRB broad foreign exchange rate(index 2001 100)Baseline 100 100.9 102.8 100.2 96.6Gradual dollar decline 100 100.6 90.9 85.8 82.8Fast dollar decline 100 99.4 85.8 79.2 79.7Faster growth in rest of world 100 100.9 99.5 105.3 100.6Real GDP(billions of chained 1996 dollars)Baseline 9,215 9,424 11,094 12,978 14,906 3.32 3.25 3.10Gradual dollar decline 9,215 9,425 11,031 12,771 14,447 3.20 3.08 2.89Fast dollar decline 9,215 9,426 10,964 12,535 14,051 3.07 2.89 2.70Faster growth in rest of world 9,215 9,424 11,049 12,849 14,823 3.23 3.15 3.07Consumption (billions of 1996 dollars)Baseline 6,377 6,577 7,586 8,791 9,859 2.90 2.94 2.74Gradual dollar decline 6,377 6,576 7,435 8,396 9,304 2.48 2.47 2.34Fast dollar decline 6,377 6,576 7,185 8,144 9,049 1.79 2.16 2.15Faster growth in rest of world 6,377 6,577 7,473 8,711 9,862 2.59 2.85 2.74Investment (billions of 1996 dollars)Baseline 1,575 1,572 2,123 2,696 3,394 6.19 5.54 5.26Gradual dollar decline 1,575 1,572 1,983 2,411 2,880 4.75 4.37 4.12Fast dollar decline 1,575 1,573 1,885 2,196 2,564 3.68 3.40 3.31Faster growth in rest of world 1,575 1,572 2,034 2,621 3,312 5.28 5.24 5.09(table continues next page)73632$$CH501-22-03 04:22:35Copyright 2003 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com121Table 5.3 The impact on the United States of a gradual dollar decline or faster growth abroad (continued)Levels Growth rates2001 2002 2007 2012 2017 2002-07 2002-12 2002-17Government (billions of 1996 dollars)Baseline 1,640 1,710 1,862 2,013 2,152 1.71 1.65 1.54Gradual dollar decline 1,640 1,710 1,862 2,016 2,157 1.72 1.66 1.56Fast dollar decline 1,640 1,710 1,863 2,019 2,161 1.73 1.68 1.57Faster growth in rest of world 1,640 1,710 1,862 2,014 2,152 1.72 1.65 1.55Net exports (billions of 1996 dollars)Baseline 416 486 486 467 290Gradual dollar decline 416 485 245 20 282Fast dollar decline 416 483 18 199 365Faster growth in rest of world 416 486 315 454 319Goods exports (billions of 1996 dollars)Baseline 785 763 1,069 1,421 1,845 6.98 6.41 6.06Gradual dollar decline 785 764 1,096 1,452 1,829 7.50 6.64 6.00Fast dollar decline 785 764 1,107 1,432 1,744 7.70 6.48 5.65Faster growth in rest of world 785 763 1,105 1,428 1,858 7.67 6.46 6.11Goods imports (billions of 1996 dollars)Baseline 1,271 1,320 1,722 2,178 2,621 5.46 5.14 4.68Gradual dollar decline 1,271 1,319 1,529 1,765 2,054 2.99 2.95 2.99Fast dollar decline 1,271 1,318 1,314 1,573 1,855 0.06 1.78 2.31Faster growth in rest of world 1,271 1,320 1,631 2,209 2,695 4.32 5.29 4.87Services exports (billions of 1996 dollars)Baseline 292 297 421 573 762 7.23 6.79 6.47Gradual dollar decline 292 297 423 575 752 7.33 6.83 6.38Fast dollar decline 292 297 427 571 725 7.50 6.73 6.12Faster growth in rest of world 292 297 457 620 815 8.97 7.62 6.9573632$$CH501-22-03 04:22:35122Copyright 2003 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.comServices imports (billions of 1996 dollars)Baseline 222 226 261 298 310 2.88 2.80 2.12Gradual dollar decline 222 226 239 251 265 1.13 1.05 1.07Fast dollar decline 222 226 205 237 262 1.95 0.47 1.00Faster growth in rest of world 222 226 252 309 332 2.14 3.18 2.59Current account balance (billions of US dollars)Baseline 393 498 643 845 935 5.27 5.43 4.29Gradual dollar decline 393 498 548 558 550 1.92 1.14 0.66Fast dollar decline 393 501 345 433 484 7.19 1.45 0.23Faster growth in rest of world 393 498 522 749 885 0.98 4.17 3.91Current account balance as percent of GDPBaseline 3.9 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.3Gradual dollar decline 3.9 4.8 4.1 3.3 2.5Fast dollar decline 3.9 4.8 2.6 2.5 2.2Faster growth in rest of world 3.9 4.8 3.9 4.4 4.2US indebtedness to rest of world(billions of US dollars)Baseline 2,266 2,665 5,475 9,210 13,648 15.49 13.20 11.50Gradual dollar decline 2,266 2,665 5,430 8,234 10,997 15.30 11.94 9.91Fast dollar decline 2,266 2,666 4,813 6,934 9,078 12.55 10.03 8.51Faster growth in rest of world 2,266 2,665 5,238 8,307 12,499 14.47 12.04 10.85US indebtedness to rest of worldas percent of GDPBaseline 22.5 25.6 41.1 54.2 63.4Gradual dollar decline 22.5 25.6 40.6 48.2 50.9Fast dollar decline 22.5 25.6 35.6 40.2 41.9Faster growth in rest of world 22.5 25.6 39.3 49.3 58.7(table continues next page)73632$$CH501-22-03 04:22:35Copyright 2003 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com123Table 5.3 The impact on the United States of a gradual dollar decline or faster growth abroad (continued)Levels Growth rates2001 2002 2007 2012 2017 2002-07 2002-12 2002-17GDP price indexBaseline 109.4 110.6 120.2 131.1 144.4 1.68 1.71 1.79Gradual dollar decline 109.4 110.6 121.1 133.8 149.4 1.83 1.92 2.02Fast dollar decline 109.4 110.6 123.2 137.6 154.3 2.17 2.21 2.24Faster growth in rest of world 109.4 110.6 120.6 131.2 143.7 1.74 1.72 1.76Consumer price indexBaseline 177.1 179.8 201.5 227.1 262.0 2.30 2.36 2.54Gradual dollar decline 177.1 179.9 205.4 237.1 278.7 2.69 2.80 2.96Fast dollar decline 177.1 180.0 212.5 248.3 293.0 3.38 3.27 3.30Faster growth in rest of world 177.1 179.8 202.9 226.9 259.6 2.45 2.35 2.48Foreign real GDP indexBaseline 116.6 119.0 142.2 167.2 194.5 3.62 3.46 3.33Gradual dollar decline 116.6 119.0 140.9 163.4 188.2 3.44 3.22 3.10Fast dollar decline 116.6 119.0 137.8 161.1 183.6 2.97 3.08 2.93Faster growth in rest of world 116.6 119.0 147.6 175.3 203.1 4.40 3.95 3.6373632$$CH501-22-03 04:22:35124Copyright 2003 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.comForeign consumer price indexBaseline 202.4 206.4 234.6 263.6 302.5 2.59 2.48 2.58Gradual dollar decline 202.4 206.4 235.7 269.4 313.8 2.69 2.70 2.83Fast dollar decline 202.4 206.4 240.3 277.0 324.5 3.09 2.99 3.06Faster growth in rest of world 202.4 206.4 235.2 264.3 301.2 2.65 2.50 2.55Federal funds rate (percent)Baseline 3.89 1.74 4.50 5.57 6.32 20.88 12.30 8.97Gradual dollar decline 3.89 1.75 5.99 7.99 10.05 27.96 16.43 12.38Fast dollar decline 3.89 1.77 7.34 11.21 13.14 32.97 20.31 14.32Faster growth in rest of world 3.89 1.74 5.68 5.99 7.24 26.62 13.13 9.9510-year Treasury note yield (percent)Baseline 5.02 4.71 5.95 6.90 7.72 4.78 3.89 3.34Gradual dollar decline 5.02 4.71 6.89 8.84 10.88 7.90 6.50 5 [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]